Insight Prediction News

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

1952

602

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

307399

OptionVotes

YES

2169

906

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

485242

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

Fox News' America Predicts

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242393

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

10798

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Make me the President of USA

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.91%chance

16432

OptionVotes

YES

1109

927

Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?

Dec 29, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6157

OptionProbability

Kalshi

Other

Polymarket

When will I first have a private conversation with one of: @MatthewYglesias, Agnes Callard, or Ezra Klein?

Jan 12, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

By 2024-12-31

By 2024-01-20

By 2024-02-20

By 2024-06-30

By 2029-12-31

Later, but in two of our lifetimes

Never

By 2024-01-12

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

May 3, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

446

OptionProbability

Capital Gains

Commodity Trading (60% long term capital gains, 40% short term capital gains)

Gambling Income

Self employed income

Other

Insight Prediction News

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?

When will I first have a private conversation with one of: @MatthewYglesias, Agnes Callard, or Ezra Klein?

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

Latest stories