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Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

307399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2169

906

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

619

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

475216

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

Fox News' America Predicts

95

94

90

85

81

41

37

18

Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.45%chance

344774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3812

175

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

213760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

91

88

86

75

63

25

13

8

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

161278

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Economy

Fundamental research

Space Exploration

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Human Rights

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

69

68

63

62

60

56

48

41

41

41

34

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.91%chance

16432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

927

How many active parameters will the largest Llama 3 have?

Jan 22, 2:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.53%chance

6102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

68

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