Insight Prediction News

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

2507

379

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

307399

OptionVotes

YES

2169

906

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

495263

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

Fox News' America Predicts

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242393

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

61440

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 98

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

61129

OptionProbability

108 - 116

99 - 107

117 - 125

90 - 98

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.91%chance

16432

OptionVotes

YES

1109

927

Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?

Dec 29, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8225

OptionProbability

Kalshi

Polymarket

Other

Insight Prediction News

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?

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