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Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

307399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2169

906

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

485241

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

Fox News' America Predicts

95

94

90

87

81

41

37

18

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

91

88

86

75

63

25

13

8

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.91%chance

16432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

927

Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?

Dec 29, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6157

OptionProbability

Kalshi

Other

Polymarket

62

21

16

When will I first have a private conversation with one of: @MatthewYglesias, Agnes Callard, or Ezra Klein?

Jan 12, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

By 2024-12-31

By 2024-01-20

By 2024-02-20

By 2024-06-30

By 2029-12-31

Later, but in two of our lifetimes

Never

By 2024-01-12

27

11

11

11

11

11

11

4

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

May 3, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

345

OptionProbability

Capital Gains

Commodity Trading (60% long term capital gains, 40% short term capital gains)

Gambling Income

Self employed income

Other

44

23

11

11

11

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