Insight Prediction News

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

3374

219

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

317785

OptionVotes

YES

2169

906

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

495263

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

Fox News' America Predicts

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

11.84%chance

254017

OptionVotes

YES

2618

247

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62830

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242393

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

71788

OptionProbability

99 - 107

108 - 116

90 - 98

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.54%chance

16482

OptionVotes

YES

1159

907

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

May 3, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

446

OptionProbability

Capital Gains

Commodity Trading (60% long term capital gains, 40% short term capital gains)

Gambling Income

Self employed income

Other

Insight Prediction News

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Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Prediction markets for Insight Prediction

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

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