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Prediction markets for Institutional Day

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1908

644

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

333969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

735

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Apr 25, 7:54 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

18.84%chance

222519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

895

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Mar 3, 4:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.19%chance

151831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

872

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.1%chance

25656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Jun 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

7137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.59%chance

388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

61

Will a captive coelecanth live in aquarium for more than 3 years by 2032

May 17, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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