Institutional Day News

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

YES

1908

644

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

333969

OptionVotes

YES

1139

735

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Apr 25, 7:54 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

212469

OptionVotes

YES

1012

845

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Mar 3, 4:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.19%chance

151831

OptionVotes

YES

1923

872

Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before April 2027

Jan 2, 3:10 PMMar 31, 1:00 PM

4.98%chance

11686

OptionVotes

YES

101

100

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

Will my school computer be fixed by the end of the school year?

Mar 24, 1:20 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

42%chance

6351

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

16338

OptionVotes

YES

164

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

1051

819

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

116

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

104

Institutional Day News

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before April 2027

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Will my school computer be fixed by the end of the school year?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

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