Institutional Day News

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486932

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

YES

1908

644

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

333969

OptionVotes

YES

1139

735

Will Bitcoin close above 85k by Sunday 7pm EST

Feb 2, 4:37 PMFeb 8, 6:59 PM

3.56%chance

263100

OptionVotes

YES

521

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Apr 25, 7:54 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

19.65%chance

202466

OptionVotes

YES

1009

858

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Mar 3, 4:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.19%chance

151831

OptionVotes

YES

1923

872

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

196

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2045?

Jun 9, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

444

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

100

Institutional Day News

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

Prediction markets for Institutional Day

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Will Bitcoin close above 85k by Sunday 7pm EST

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2045?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

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