Instruction Following News

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Make correct Truchet tiles

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Fold a paper airplane

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Faster than light travel

YES

YES

NO

25 to 30

31 to 36

37 to 42

21 to 24

43 to 48

49 or more

13 to 16

17 to 20

7 to 9

10 to 12

1 to 3

YES

NO

NO

YES

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

An artificial intelligence that outperforms an average human at most tasks

Other

highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work

AI as capable as at least one human who has "general intelligence"

An artificial system that can follow and apply any set of instructions an average human can follow and apply

The ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform

AI with the ability to pass the Turing test

YES