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Prediction markets for Integrity Verifier

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.52%chance

152923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1625

616

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

191779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

31.57%chance

91520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2221

1777

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.58%chance

241311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

830

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

Will BCI/neurotech be integrated into Twitter's "Verified Users" algorithm by 2030?

Sep 21, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.04%chance

7493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

124

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

50%chance

2492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.

Jun 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

7345

OptionProbability

Meta will launch a standalone prediction market app by end of 2026

Meta's prediction market platform will flop.

Meta will integrate prediction markets into Facebook or Instagram

70

51

49

Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?

Jun 11, 11:09 AMAug 27, 11:59 PM

18.54%chance

387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

74

Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?

Jun 25, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.61%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

78

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