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Prediction markets for Integrity Verifier

Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?

Nov 9, 3:37 PMJan 17, 6:59 AM

211522

OptionProbability

No

Yes

Partial Influence

93

4

3

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.58%chance

161331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1662

602

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

231261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

838

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

Will BCI/neurotech be integrated into Twitter's "Verified Users" algorithm by 2030?

Sep 21, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.04%chance

7493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

124

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.2%chance

4274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will GoodWager.bet have more than 350 MAU by EOY 2026?

Jan 14, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.21%chance

3106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

396

250

Now WildBrain buys Aardman in 2029

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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