Intellectual Property News

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

223786

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

2085

480

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

Jun 11, 4:34 PMJun 19, 6:59 AM

232970

OptionProbability

2046-∞ or never

2025-2030

2031-2035

2036-2040

2041-2045

EOY 2024

Will Siberian Node’s generative pipeline render traditional Hollywood studio production obsolete by the end of 2026?

Apr 20, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.04%chance

202771

OptionVotes

YES

565

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.07%chance

191743

OptionVotes

YES

2130

470

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

1375

730

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

17495

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

Sep 18, 5:46 AMAug 18, 6:59 AM

31.3%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

141

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

Jun 4, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.41%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

135

Intellectual Property News

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

Will Siberian Node’s generative pipeline render traditional Hollywood studio production obsolete by the end of 2026?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

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