Intellectual Property News

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

Jun 11, 4:34 PMJun 19, 6:59 AM

232970

OptionProbability

2046-∞ or never

2025-2030

2031-2035

2036-2040

2041-2045

EOY 2024

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.05%chance

82900

OptionVotes

YES

1880

532

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11238

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

Sep 18, 5:46 AMAug 18, 6:59 AM

31.3%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

141

Intellectual Property News

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

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