Intellectual Property News

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

2085

480

Will Siberian Node’s generative pipeline render traditional Hollywood studio production obsolete by the end of 2026?

Apr 20, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.24%chance

172510

OptionVotes

YES

268

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24%chance

161269

OptionVotes

YES

1780

562

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

1375

730

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?

Oct 8, 7:05 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

6233

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2050s

2020s

2060+ or never

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

Sep 18, 5:46 AMAug 18, 6:59 AM

31.3%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

141

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

Jun 4, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.41%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

135

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

121

Intellectual Property News

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Will Siberian Node’s generative pipeline render traditional Hollywood studio production obsolete by the end of 2026?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

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