Intellectual Property News

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.52%chance

383921

OptionVotes

YES

7881

5345

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

2085

480

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

1553

644

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.84%chance

9471

OptionVotes

YES

1420

704

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11238

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Sancton v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Chabon v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

Sep 18, 5:46 AMAug 18, 6:59 AM

31.3%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

141

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

Jun 4, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.41%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

135

Intellectual Property News

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

Prediction markets for Intellectual Property

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

RWBY vol 10 released in 2026?

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