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Prediction markets for Intelligence Age

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

37

29

18

16

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7333700

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Makes it to 1000

Dies before AGI has been developed

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

30

27

20

15

6

3

Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?

Jun 1, 10:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

125149

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

32

18

8

0

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

29%chance

251554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will Extra Terrestrials live among us by 2027?

Dec 1, 6:09 PMMay 16, 12:00 AM

12.29%chance

9857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

37

Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?

Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

61.53%chance

23481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

912

Will the "Machinocene" be designated as a new geological epoch by 2060?

Mar 11, 12:41 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.02%chance

4439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

93

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

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