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Prediction markets for Intelligence Age

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40639245

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

Other

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

32

26

21

20

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7032625

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Dies before AGI has been developed

Makes it to 1000

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

33

28

15

14

6

4

Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?

Jun 1, 10:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

114949

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

32

18

8

3

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 19, 3:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

14.91%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

909

Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?

Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

61.53%chance

23481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

912

Will the "Machinocene" be designated as a new geological epoch by 2060?

Mar 11, 12:41 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.02%chance

4439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

93

Will "The Age of Disclosure" be publicly released?

Mar 25, 11:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.09%chance

7377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

798

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

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