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Prediction markets for Intelligent Assist

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.51%chance

14027140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4793

842

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10119

734

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Mar 12, 8:49 PMJun 20, 7:59 PM

67.25%chance

623808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

79

US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029

Mar 11, 3:37 PMJan 20, 12:00 AM

21.28%chance

221633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1924

520

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Jun 16, 2:44 PMNov 11, 12:37 PM

47.13%chance

31985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

910

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.97%chance

13879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Oxford University Press's 2025 Word of the Year will be AI-related

Mar 26, 2:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.59%chance

8877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

633

AI entirely replaces indie game developers in the future?

Aug 8, 3:39 AMSep 7, 3:39 AM

8.26%chance

6541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

30

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.27%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

169

Kramer Intelligence released on Microsoft Store by 2026?

Jul 5, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

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