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Prediction markets for Intelligent Cloud

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

8.11%chance

214679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3366

297

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

73.28%chance

13540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

100

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will Michael Saylor show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.53%chance

5277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

329

30

Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?

May 28, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

84.57%chance

6138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

46

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.11%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

40

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

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