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Prediction markets for Intelligent Cloud

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

9.28%chance

214429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

320

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.31%chance

9360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

363

68

Will Michael Saylor show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.53%chance

5277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

329

30

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

41

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

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