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Prediction markets for Intent

Will a human intentionally kill another human in space by 2050?

Aug 19, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.93%chance

12115227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

153

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.49%chance

2413086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13201

7571

Will a province or territory of Canada express an intent to join, or attempt to join the US before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

5.66%chance

305172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4083

245

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

313209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

949

Will Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?

Feb 12, 2:39 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

20%chance

132627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

[Mega-market - add options] Who will directly and intentionally kill someone in their lifetime?

Mar 29, 12:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

192474

OptionProbability

Darwin (FPV drone operator with 92nd Brigade of AFU)

Javier Milei

Elon Musk

Elton John

Kanye West

Donald Trump

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

Joe Biden

100

13

7

7

6

4

4

4

3

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

29.6%chance

242466

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1367

747

Before 2030, will we learn that a major discovery in physics had been made before 2023, but intentionally kept secret?

Nov 18, 11:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7%chance

11565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

916

Will seaweed farmers intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050?

Mar 3, 4:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

922

Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2027?

Sep 11, 11:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

16.68%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

155

Will "Intention to Treat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 1:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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