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Prediction markets for Interactive

Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?

Jan 29, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.89%chance

727395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

614

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

502853

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

70

20

4

3

1

1

1

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.36%chance

611791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

1017

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?

May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

11.77%chance

131073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.3%chance

26792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.18%chance

3272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

370

27

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

42

25

15

11

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In 2044, will domain names remain an important method for users to interact with and access online content?

Oct 15, 7:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.56%chance

569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

114

Will prompting of generalist models be the dominant method of interaction with LLMs on 1 January 2028?

Jun 15, 2:33 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.6%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

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