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Prediction markets for Interactive

Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?

Jan 29, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.86%chance

707309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

651

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

492802

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

69

22

3

3

1

1

1

Will I have a meaningful interaction over BitChat before August 1st 2026?

Aug 4, 6:22 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

82280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

121

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.6%chance

601782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

1008

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?

May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

11.77%chance

121013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

25717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

925

Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?

Oct 8, 10:22 PMDec 23, 6:59 AM

9647

OptionProbability

Microsoft/OpenAI

Google (Alphabet)

Amazon/Anthropic

Other

[A Chinese Company]

Meta

Inflection AI

Tesla

IBM

Boston Dynamics (Hyundai)

Other

19

16

12

12

10

8

7

6

4

4

2

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 30, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

14635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

67

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.55%chance

12408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

72

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