Intermediate News

(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session

[BAH] Safety car during the race

[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[BAH] Bearman scores points

[SAU] Safety Car during the race

[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3

[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race

[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying

[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP

[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP

[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race

[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium

[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race

[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish

[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session

[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris

[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)

[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps

[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri

[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race

[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5

[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3

[SPA] McLaren Pole Position

[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying

[CAN] Stroll starts the race

[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)

[CAN] Mercedes Podium

[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUT] Yellow flag first lap

[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3

[AUT] McLaren 1-2

[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10

[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)

[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position

[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.

[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10

[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)

[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race

[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)

[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)

[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)

[HUN] Leclerc finished ahead of Hamilton in the race

[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points

[HUN] At least two drivers DNF

[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points

[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[HUN] Yellow flag first lap

[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1

Leave it open for upcoming GP

[MIA] Safety car in the main race

[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points

[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

(JAP) Safety car during the race

(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)

(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points

[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] McLaren double podium

[SAU] Bearman scores points

[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race

[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying

[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium

[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris

[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points

[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race

[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)

[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race

[SPA] Yellow flag first lap

[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3

[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)

[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying

[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)

[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)

[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap

[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3

[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points

[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium

[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)

[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.

[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)

[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3

[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)

[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium

[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10

[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium

[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)

[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)

[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race

[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race

[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race

[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted

[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Fold a paper airplane

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Make correct Truchet tiles

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Sudanese Civil War ends

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

YES

ETH true, GI in P

ETH true, GI NP-intermediate

P != NP, ETH false, GI NP-intermediate

P != NP, ETH false, GI in P

P = NP

YES

Evercore

Jefferies

Other

Campbell Lutyens

William Blair

Raccoon Dog

Masked Palm Civet

Bamboo Rat

Hog Badger

Other

Pangolin

No intermediate host (direct infection from bat to human)

Siberian Weasel

Malayan Porcupine

Marmot

Chinese Muntjac

Red Fox

Wild boar

Asian Badger

YES

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Queen’s Gambit

Sicilian Defense

Other

Colle Opening

King’s Gambit

London System