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Prediction markets for International

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.06%chance

85394745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6939

128

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.84%chance

143124072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14589

9133

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112101

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.31%chance

22688584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1963

741

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.95%chance

16049732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9883

2067

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.93%chance

7428716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3870

423

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17089

5852

Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

Feb 7, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.48%chance

1308817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3118

1577

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.12%chance

171610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10277

9735

2026 Neustadt International Prize for Literature

Jun 15, 7:27 PMOct 18, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yuri Andrukhovych / Set Change

Elif Batuman / The Possessed

Mei-mei Berssenbrugge / A Treatise on Stars

Robert Olen Butler / Had a Good Time

Safia Elhillo / The January Children

Mathias Énard / Tell Them of Battles, Kings, and Elephants

Ibrahim Nasrallah / Time of White Horses

Yoko Tawada / The Emissary

Jesmyn Ward / Sing, Unburied, Sing

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

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