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Top stories

Israel Defense Chief Calls Lula ‘Antisemitic,’ Brazil Condemns Remarks

Israel Defense Chief Calls Lula ‘Antisemitic,’ Brazil Condemns Remarks

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for International Court of Justice

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.78%chance

348101616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2426

968

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

4410899

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

UNRWA

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Vladimir Putin

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

The International Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

International Court of Justice

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Narges Mohammadi

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

71

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs lawful?

Aug 29, 10:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

24%chance

495409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?

Mar 14, 5:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

184126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

If ICJ rules in favor of SA, then which nominee wins 2024 US election?

Jun 3, 6:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43355

OptionProbability

Trump

Biden

20

0

Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Feb 15, 5:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.59%chance

332901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1627

614

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

32.15%chance

71909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?

Dec 6, 2:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.49%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

287

57

Will the ICJ determine that Myanmar committed genocide?

May 31, 9:28 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

40.58%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will US supreme count will revoke tariffs sanctioned by trump before 1 march

Jan 15, 7:17 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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