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Prediction markets for International Management

In how many months will I get a job?

Mar 7, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

445559

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

292009

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

29

21

17

17

How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

231815

OptionProbability

16-20

11-15

21-25

6-10

31-35

1-5

26-30

36-40

41-45

Other

38

32

22

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.51%chance

25837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

911

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will a European politician promote a shitcoin in 2025?

Apr 21, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46%chance

21349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

39.24%chance

13323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

948

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

54.07%chance

6227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

199

What futuristic accessories may we have in our kitchens in 2035 for less than $10k?

Mar 8, 4:34 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9209

OptionProbability

Smart Refrigerators with Internal Cameras and Inventory Management

Automated Kitchen Assistants

Self-cleaning kitchen surfaces

3D Food Printers

76

50

50

25

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

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