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Prediction markets for International Math Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112159

17112

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69113858

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.77%chance

15037943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10179

9344

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8426

If China invades Taiwan before IMO 2026, will IMO 2026 be cancelled?

May 2, 9:57 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

77.89%chance

131178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

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