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Top stories

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for International Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

298844

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

100

96

96

95

0

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

337767

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2030 or later

2029

2026

71

12

7

5

4

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94215

OptionProbability

>= 25 years

< 25 years

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 year

< 2 years

< 1 month

< 4 months

< 1 week

42

14

12

10

8

8

3

2

1

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.56%chance

334011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

672

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203945

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

122923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

757

15

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

102043

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2024

2025

2026

13

12

10

0

0

0

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

231853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

569

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.4%chance

4927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

48

Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?

Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM

9754

OptionProbability

IMO 2027 held in Hungary

IMO 2028 held in Saudi Arabia

IMO 2029 held in Mongolia

IMO 2030 held in Switzerland

IMO 2031 held in USA

98

92

90

90

85

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

48

39

14

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