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Prediction markets for Internet Computer

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will computers and internet still be a widespread and accessible technology in 2038?

Nov 22, 8:46 PMJan 29, 10:59 PM

96.57%chance

324145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2068

859

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will there be a new revolutionary technology by 2030?

Aug 18, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

83.69%chance

481456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

934

How many characters does it take to instantiate the smallest possible superintelligence in Python?

Nov 11, 6:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81370

OptionProbability

1,000,000 - 9,999,999

100,000 - 999,999

10,000 - 99,999

1000 - 9999

100 - 999

10,000,000 - 99,999,999

Other

0 - 9

10 - 99

27

24

23

10

7

5

3

1

1

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.72%chance

561215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

912

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?

Jul 9, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

5427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

Jun 12, 2:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17412

OptionProbability

2070

2080

2060

Other

AFTER widespread Bitcoin adoption

2050

Lmao

2090

2040

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

15

14

14

12

9

8

7

7

7

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Russia ban personal computers and public internet access by 2040?

Jul 25, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.53%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

151

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