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Top stories

GPT-5 Jailbreak and AI Agent Attacks Fuel Cyber Threats by Russian, Chinese Groups Targeting Cloud and IoT Systems

Authors

7

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Internet of Things

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32243

2599

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will Trump restrict porn?

Nov 7, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

14.06%chance

5812159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2472

405

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

825

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

29.41%chance

141738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

646

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.74%chance

5555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

643

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?

Apr 6, 5:35 PMApr 6, 11:59 PM

80.01%chance

3125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will The Internet of Things Ever Become a Thing Again?

Apr 18, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.89%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

130

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