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Top stories

GPT-5 Jailbreak and AI Agent Attacks Fuel Cyber Threats by Russian, Chinese Groups Targeting Cloud and IoT Systems

Authors

7

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Internet of Things

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79%chance

11128446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will Trump restrict porn?

Nov 7, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

14.52%chance

5511642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2426

412

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Who will change their opinions in 2025?

Oct 21, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171366

OptionProbability

@Bayesian

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Matthew Yglesias

Zohran Mamdani

Sam Altman

Paul Graham

Gwern

Marc Andreessen

Andrej Karpathy

Elon Musk

J.D. Vance

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Donald Trump

100

69

66

63

60

50

50

50

45

45

43

35

35

35

33

Has Lockheed Martin developed a compact fusion reactor?

Sep 21, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.69%chance

13973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

20

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Will The Internet of Things Ever Become a Thing Again?

Apr 18, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.89%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

130

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