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Top stories

Coinbase Enables Instant Stablecoin Payments on Sei Network

Coinbase Enables Instant Stablecoin Payments on Sei Network

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Internet

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11161

8960

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.69%chance

252991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2185

458

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.86%chance

371969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

902

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.18%chance

221238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

937

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.62%chance

391186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2064

1751

Will there be internet service on Mars at the end of 2060?

Mar 28, 4:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.82%chance

231162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

869

Will someone have a chip implanted in their head that can access the internet at 16KB/s before Elon Musk dies

Mar 28, 11:31 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

56.63%chance

18948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

376

Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?

Aug 5, 6:50 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

36.78%chance

12846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will there be internet service on the Moon at the end of 2040?

Mar 28, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.14%chance

22708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

788

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.63%chance

19627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

947

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