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Prediction markets for Interpreter

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8478523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23744

4212

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9134144

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Other

Copenhagen

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Superdeterminism

Something else

57

26

5

5

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.76%chance

9531424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1072

When will human interpreters become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

9.44%chance

449770

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4900

3402

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

934

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

313209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

949

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.25%chance

211799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

428

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

231248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

985

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

AI interpretability finds "heel turn" or "waluigi" circuits by 2028-03-11?

Mar 12, 2:18 AMMar 11, 11:59 PM

42.93%chance

16653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

991

What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?

Dec 12, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

8425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will "How To Become A Mechanistic Interpretability ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 6:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50.05%chance

3310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

210

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