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Prediction markets for Interpreter

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.01%chance

8579364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20640

4845

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9435409

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Copenhagen

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

46

32

7

6

4

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.94%chance

10332775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1104

When will human interpreters become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

9.44%chance

449770

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4900

3402

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

934

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

313209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

949

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.88%chance

221829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

458

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

231248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

985

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

AI interpretability finds "heel turn" or "waluigi" circuits by 2028-03-11?

Mar 12, 2:18 AMMar 11, 11:59 PM

42.93%chance

16653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

991

What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?

Dec 12, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

8425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will "How To Become A Mechanistic Interpretability ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 6:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50.05%chance

3310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

210

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