Interstellar News

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

586526

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

655180

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

Gattaca (1997)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Wag the Dog (1997)

Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?

May 19, 7:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20%chance

252656

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?

Feb 25, 9:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.99%chance

171053

OptionVotes

YES

1701

884

How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026?

Jan 2, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15925

OptionProbability

Other

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

Sep 17, 2:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.89%chance

22786

OptionVotes

YES

1248

869

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10620

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Inception

Wolf of Wall Street

Whiplash

Spirited Away

Interstellar

Mad Max Fury Road

Arrival

Poor Things

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Dark Knight

Killers of the Flower Moon

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Martian

Drive

Baby Driver

Paul Blart Mall Cop

Napoleon

Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Sep 8, 3:56 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

68.18%chance

15472

OptionVotes

YES

1092

682

Will NASA or any other space agency have a plan for interstellar travel by 2100

Dec 21, 8:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

8108

OptionVotes

YES

236

139

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Sep 17, 2:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will China launch the Interstellar Express missions before 2030?

Apr 9, 4:55 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

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If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?

How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026?

Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Will NASA or any other space agency have a plan for interstellar travel by 2100

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Will China launch the Interstellar Express missions before 2030?

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