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Prediction markets for Into

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

4956294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6434

3382

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.66%chance

22324701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3367

1404

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.47%chance

13711403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

664

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Can I get into the 2026 World Cup final for under $500 by showing up at the stadium 30 minutes before kickoff?

May 21, 6:57 PMJul 18, 12:00 PM

4.52%chance

93644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4597

218

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.59%chance

51188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3013

2735

The game awards 2026: Flute guy blows into >3 instruments

Dec 13, 4:15 AMDec 11, 4:15 AM

32.93%chance

772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

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