Into News
Prediction markets for Into
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.09%chance
827508712
OptionVotes
57325
10606
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.41%chance
21924219
OptionVotes
3670
983
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
20%chance
7120586
OptionVotes
2000
500
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75.9%chance
10318919
OptionVotes
1813
773
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM
66.9%chance
13611303
OptionVotes
1920
710
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
19.06%chance
1211095
OptionVotes
18607
6485
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.7%chance
313019
OptionVotes
1023
838
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57.61%chance
552029
OptionVotes
1261
970
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?
Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM
11.53%chance
41186
OptionVotes
3011
2751
The game awards 2026: Flute guy blows into >3 instruments
Dec 13, 4:15 AMDec 11, 4:15 AM
29.22%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
64
How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?
Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20