Into the Millennium News

NO

NO

NO

YES

I visit Times Square

A friend from [city] comes to NYC and I see them

I explore the High Line

At least 20 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I attend an OBNYC meetup

I visit the New York Public Library

I visit the Empire State Building

I see a Broadway show

I visit the Statue of Liberty

I am at least moderately homesick

I meet someone I've met before at [company]

I see a rat (rattus norvegicus)

I eat a new york bagel

At least 50 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I explore Central Park

I really like the city

I gain the desire to move to NYC

I see a horse

I visit the Met

I visit the MoMA

I gain a romantic interest

I cry at some point

I get a good intuition for what a Kan extension is

I start using at least one "New York ism" in my regular speech

I lose 5 lbs

I visit the Guggenheim Museum

I visit the American Museum of Natural History

At least 100 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I kiss someone

I witness a man arguing passionately with no one

I meet someone I think is smarter than anyone I have ever met before

I hail a cab

I wish I had spent more time doing tourist-y things

Someone signs up primarily to bet in this market

I see at least 4 protests

I resolve a proposition in this market incorrectly

I eat at least 10 meals of plain white rice

My opinion of the United States changes significantly in valence

I eat a bagel with lox and cream cheese from Russ & Daughters

I gain at least 5lbs of weight

I eat something from a street cart that costs less than $5

I attend a pride parade

I play chess in a park

I actively participate in or actively attend a political rally or political protest

I explore Coney Island

I hail a cab in a way that could plausibly be mistaken for a nazi salute

I hear someone say "I'm walkin' here!" unironically

I regret making this market

I witness a violent crime

YES

Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines

The existence of the AGI and the model name were leaked prior to release and official announcement

Developed by a US company

Trained with synthetic data and self-play

Doomsday clock moved at least one full minute closer to midnight due to this AI

Transformer based or mix of Transformer and other architectures

Has an internal World Model able to simulate basic physics without external tools

No consensus that it's AGI until over a month after being announced and interacting with people outside the lab.

Not available in EU countries initially for the first 4 months after public release

Based on/inspired by algorithms from the human brain (beyond neural networks).

Public announcement was made after 1 year or more of finishing training

Infinite context window

Solves at least one of the seven Millennium Problems

Not a static model; weights change during inference

Used by a Figure humanoid robot

Is OpenAI's GPT-6, whatever name or architecture it has

Based on/inspired by OpenAI's Sora (resolves YES if explicitly stated by developers in announcement or paper)

This market will resolve N/A

Developed by a Chinese company

Open sourced

Is OpenAI's GPT-5, whatever name or architecture it has

Developed by the open-source community instead of a company

Is marketed as Episode X

Red lightsaber on screen

Blue lightsaber on screen

Green lightsaber on screen

Will be announced before 2028

Trailer out before 2028 (teaser counts)

The "Millennium Falcon" is on screen or mentioned

"Darth Sidious" or "Palpatine" is mentioned

Tie fighters on screen

"Darth Vader" is mentioned

A character is a Skywalker (by blood, name does not matter)

A dead character has spoken lines

A dead person appears as something like a ~spirit

New droid companion

Oscar Isaac returns in his previous role

Strong, quasi-masculine-presenting female lead character

Scantily clad hypersexualized female characters

Sole director credit to Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

Digital version of dead actor plays a role

Yellow lightsaber on screen

Scores ≥7.5 on IMDB exactly one month after release

There will be a new lightsaber based weapon form we haven’t seen before (like Kylo’s light saber hilt).

John Boyega returns in his previous role

Adam Driver returns in his previous role

Taxes are mentioned

Droid dances

Using the force to choke someone

Death Star mentioned

Flashback to a period clearly overlapping with movies I-IX

Any actor from the original trilogy plays the same role

Is defined as part of a trilogy, before its premier date

Blue milk on screen

Cantina band song remix

Purple lightsaber on screen

Main character is not human

Somehow, Palpatine returned

Will NOT be announced before 2030

YES

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

Other

Millennium

Citadel

Point72

Balyasny