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Prediction markets for invasion

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

904510910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16189

11566

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5753637

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

Japan allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

Taiwan surrenders

Food shortages in China

China attacks Japan

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

US military intervention

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks South Korea

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

78

77

70

67

61

60

56

54

54

52

51

49

49

49

48

47

45

42

40

40

40

39

39

38

38

38

37

36

35

34

33

12

10

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.42%chance

7944401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11671

6645

Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

Mar 24, 8:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.69%chance

6521677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

635

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.6%chance

333193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

614

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

262937

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

837

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.57%chance

372686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

171

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.9%chance

20985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

749

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.89%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

884

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

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