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Prediction markets for invasion

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.78%chance

940538591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16043

11887

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6054502

OptionProbability

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

China sanctioned by US + Europe

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

Japan allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

US military intervention

Japanese military intervention

Taiwan surrenders

China attacks Japan

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Philippines allows use of airbases

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Chinese mainland bombed

Food shortages in China

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

78

78

70

67

61

60

56

54

54

52

51

50

50

49

49

47

42

42

40

40

40

40

39

39

38

38

37

37

36

35

33

12

10

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.63%chance

7944509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11563

6673

Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

Mar 24, 8:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.69%chance

6521677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

635

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29%chance

426693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

678

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.51%chance

283063

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

913

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.26%chance

402719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

173

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.13%chance

231585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

841

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.89%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

884

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

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