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Prediction markets for invasion

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.19%chance

861470662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15727

12532

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?

Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

109129265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4195

238

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5248082

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

US military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded

Chinese mainland bombed

Taiwan surrenders

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks Japan

Food shortages in China

Oil shortages in China

Philippines attacked by Chinese

Guam attacked by Chinese

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Japan attacked by Chinese

South Korean military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Indian military intervention

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

US destroys TSMC factories

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

75

70

68

61

56

56

55

54

54

48

48

48

47

47

45

44

43

42

41

40

39

38

37

36

33

33

33

31

28

24

19

12

10

Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?

Feb 23, 1:56 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

43%chance

7220188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

393

Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

Mar 24, 8:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

29.66%chance

5916876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

611

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

29.01%chance

5213736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8467

7679

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

262936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

836

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.55%chance

332389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

157

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.09%chance

281938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

674

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.9%chance

20985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

749

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

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