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Prediction markets for invasion

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.41%chance

1012562053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16960

13059

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6457546

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

China attacks Japan

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

US military intervention

Japanese military intervention

Taiwan surrenders

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Philippines allows use of airbases

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

Food shortages in China

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

78

75

69

67

67

61

60

55

54

54

52

51

50

50

49

47

42

42

41

40

40

40

40

39

39

38

37

35

33

31

31

12

10

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

17.86%chance

8447650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13082

6312

Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?

Mar 24, 8:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

17.17%chance

7123359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

942

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.92%chance

7515730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

829

117

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

55%chance

488666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

754

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.12%chance

507928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

948

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.35%chance

404321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

873

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.78%chance

303189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

795

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.36%chance

492879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

151

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

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