invasion of Ukraine News

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

75.21%chance

14177208

OptionVotes

YES

1696

507

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

20662489

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030+

2025

2028

2029

2024

2023

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

2052

747

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.28%chance

445116

OptionVotes

YES

1285

778

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.83%chance

394332

OptionVotes

YES

2790

612

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.94%chance

253648

OptionVotes

YES

2472

405

Will China take any part of Russian territory for its own within the next 3 years?

Dec 19, 8:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.51%chance

272646

OptionVotes

YES

3085

324

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

242268

OptionVotes

YES

2018

687

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.84%chance

9896

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

Mar 6, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30841

OptionProbability

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Petro Poroshenko

Other

Kyrylo Budanov

Andriy Biletskyi

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Oct 7, 1:24 PMJan 1, 11:00 PM

24.03%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

127

invasion of Ukraine News

Prediction markets for invasion of Ukraine

Prediction markets for invasion of Ukraine

Prediction markets for invasion of Ukraine

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Will China take any part of Russian territory for its own within the next 3 years?

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

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