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Top stories

Biden Pardons Adam Schiff for Select Committee Offenses; Excludes Russiagate Charges as Judge Lamberth Denies Jan 6 Defendant Reimbursement

Executive Orders

Biden Pardons Adam Schiff for Select Committee Offenses; Excludes Russiagate Charges as Judge Lamberth Denies Jan 6 Defendant Reimbursement

Authors

7

22 hours ago

Prediction markets for Investigate

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.35%chance

192343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

823

Will a HHMI Investigator be sprung out of Alexey Guzey's NewScience by 2040?

Jan 3, 8:46 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

14.49%chance

11806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

935

Will Yale's failure to disclose 15 million in Qatari funding, precipitate a Federal investigation? See below Info

Jun 18, 8:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.82%chance

9546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

996

Manifold.markets will be investigated by the FTC or SEC before EOY 2030

Nov 15, 2:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.74%chance

4378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Congress investigates Epstein files handling before September 30, 2025?

Jul 16, 7:28 PMSep 29, 11:59 PM

38.28%chance

12331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will "Investigating the Chart of the Century: Why i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 19, 5:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.73%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

985

Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 20, 3:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If investigated, will it be found that mana being able to direct charitable donations increases manifolds accuracy?

Jul 18, 9:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.58%chance

537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

124

What illnesses will I learn that I have conditional on investigating?

Nov 16, 2:05 AMNov 23, 7:59 AM

226

OptionProbability

Glaucoma

Type 1 Diabetes

31

31

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

Will Kejun Ying (Albert Ying) become a HHMI investigator by EOY2080?

May 2, 4:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.74%chance

13

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

98

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