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Prediction markets for Investing in America

When will the first mainstream article cover facts in Sokolowski, et. al. v. Silbert, et. al. Second Amended Complaint?

Jan 5, 3:11 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

1015855

OptionProbability

Before 6/30/2026

Before 1/7/2026

Before 1/10/2026

Before 1/14/2026

Before 1/20/2026

Before 1/31/2026

Before 2/15/2026

Before 2/28/2026

Before 3/15/2026

Before 3/31/2026

Before 4/30/2026

Before 5/31/2026

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

4805

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

What will be the final net IRR for Thoma Bravo XV? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.04%chance

62250

OptionProbability

NO

YES

449

249

What will be the final net IRR for Berkshire Fund X? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.25%chance

72148

OptionProbability

NO

YES

464

271

What will be the final net IRR for Vector Capital VI? (X100)

Dec 2, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.25%chance

42024

OptionProbability

NO

YES

415

236

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