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Prediction markets for Investor Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81785

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

June 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

July 2026

August 2026

It won't, not before 2027

February 2026

January 2026

30

24

23

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

3

1

Which of these food delivery services will still exist in 2026?

Nov 27, 8:33 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

151587

OptionProbability

Uber Eats

Doordash

Grubhub

Deliveroo

97

97

96

94

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.09%chance

51528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

733

Will Gold be above $5,000 end of February?

Feb 1, 5:12 PMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

76.9%chance

20752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6159

OptionProbability

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

26

22

19

12

10

10

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

Oct 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.68%chance

267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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