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Prediction markets for Investor Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.6%chance

275531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3264

307

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143936

OptionProbability

It won't, not before 2027

November 2026

December 2026

October 2026

August 2026

September 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

70

11

11

5

3

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.46%chance

82969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2642

379

Which of these food delivery services will still exist in 2026?

Nov 27, 8:33 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

151587

OptionProbability

Uber Eats

Doordash

Grubhub

Deliveroo

97

97

96

94

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

111523

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

44

37

14

2

1

1

Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?

Feb 12, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

91506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Will the NTSD ETF be shut down?

Apr 20, 7:27 PMMar 21, 3:00 AM

28.42%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

473

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:36 PMAug 6, 12:00 AM

50.15%chance

9130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

Oct 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.87%chance

2117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

63

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 35 percent on September 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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