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Prediction markets for Investor Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

732

Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?

Feb 12, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

91506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81286

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

35

29

23

11

1

1

Will the NTSD ETF be shut down?

Apr 20, 7:27 PMMar 21, 3:00 AM

28.42%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

473

Will gold exceed $7,000 USD per ounce before January 1 2027

Mar 18, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

8139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

50

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 35 percent on December 31, 2030?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 35 percent on December 31, 2028?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on December 31, 2028?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on December 31, 2027?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on September 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on December 31, 2030?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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