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Prediction markets for Investor Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.16%chance

93331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

684

Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

Apr 7, 11:20 PMDec 30, 11:19 PM

99%chance

92593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

112542

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

53

40

2

1

1

1

Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?

Feb 12, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.57%chance

112059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

446

Which of these food delivery services will still exist in 2026?

Nov 27, 8:33 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

151587

OptionProbability

Uber Eats

Doordash

Grubhub

Deliveroo

97

97

96

94

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will gold exceed $7,000 USD per ounce before January 1 2027

Mar 18, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.04%chance

15418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

23

Will the NTSD ETF be shut down?

Apr 20, 7:27 PMMar 21, 3:00 AM

28.42%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

473

Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026?

Sep 18, 9:25 PMNov 1, 6:00 AM

77.65%chance

694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

30

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on March 31, 2027?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

56.4%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 55 percent on September 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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