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Prediction markets for Investor Day

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.26%chance

605653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2457

203

After GPT 5 is launched, will Microsoft's stock rise in the following two weeks?

Jan 26, 1:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

324558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4879

20

Which of these food delivery services will still exist in 2026?

Nov 27, 8:33 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

121327

OptionProbability

Uber Eats

Doordash

Grubhub

Deliveroo

97

97

96

71

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

72%chance

11251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

Citigroup stock over $100 at EOY2025?

Aug 1, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

Oct 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.36%chance

157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

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