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Prediction markets for Investor Day

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 30 days?

Mar 18, 3:39 PMApr 17, 3:38 PM

50%chance

3612321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

122623

OptionProbability

It won't, not before 2027

May 2026

April 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

October 2026

September 2026

November 2026

December 2026

March 2026

January 2026

February 2026

48

19

18

13

5

5

5

3

3

3

2

0

0

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

732

Which of these food delivery services will still exist in 2026?

Nov 27, 8:33 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

151587

OptionProbability

Uber Eats

Doordash

Grubhub

Deliveroo

97

97

96

94

Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?

Feb 12, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

91506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

Will TSLA reach $900 before 2028

Feb 9, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

12700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Will gold exceed $7,000 USD per ounce before January 1 2027

Mar 18, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

8139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

50

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before May?

Mar 7, 8:32 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

Oct 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.68%chance

267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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