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Prediction markets for Investor Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

732

Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?

Feb 12, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

91506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81440

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

36

29

27

7

1

1

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?

Apr 30, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

16615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will the NTSD ETF be shut down?

Apr 20, 7:27 PMMar 21, 3:00 AM

28.42%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

473

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

Oct 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.87%chance

2117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

63

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 35 percent on September 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on September 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on March 31, 2027?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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