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Prediction markets for Iranian military

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.21%chance

298402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6656

150

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Jun 20, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.8%chance

436480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2610

383

NATO joins USA-Iran conflict before 2026?

Jun 22, 10:25 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

14.49%chance

191990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

412

US boots on Iranian soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.39%chance

121518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Jun 26, 1:41 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

19989

OptionProbability

Wednesday, December 31

Friday, October 31

Sunday, August 31

Friday, June 27

Friday, July 11

Thursday, July 31

50

41

10

0

0

0

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?

Jun 25, 3:37 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.22%chance

12582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

How long until Majid Mousavi is no longer Aerospace Chief of the IRGC?

Jun 15, 10:13 PMDec 31, 10:57 PM

5410

Has there been / will there be any covert Israeli 🇮🇱 sabotage activity inside Iran 🇮🇷 after the June ceasefire?

Jul 24, 1:59 AMJun 30, 6:59 PM

64.68%chance

6369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

739

Will Iran strike the British Overseas Territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia before 2030?

Apr 15, 4:10 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.58%chance

7190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

102

Israeli attack on Iran

Jul 28, 2:55 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

440

OptionProbability

Before January 2026

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before October 2025

Before September 2025

59

50

50

34

28

Will China sell SAM air defense systems to Iran before 2027?

Jun 27, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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