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Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

51%chance

428153415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8907

3846

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.29%chance

27106385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138784

35201

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.52%chance

4515811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11214

9228

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.19%chance

7814254

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1118

858

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.03%chance

4711308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43273

34126

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

206441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12038

8179

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11755

8505

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