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Prediction markets for Islamic State
OptionVotes
23237
879
OptionProbability
85
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
81.47%chance
4510363
OptionVotes
2097
477
OptionVotes
569
18
OptionProbability
29
16
11
10
Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027
Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
11.73%chance
252970
OptionVotes
2743
365
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
92.93%chance
291557
OptionVotes
363
28
If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?
Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM
79.58%chance
341276
OptionVotes
198
51
OptionVotes
377
27
Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
41.12%chance
16792
OptionVotes
370
334
OptionProbability
74
19
5
2
Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?
Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM
17.78%chance
13408
OptionVotes
215
47