Isolated Markets News

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

51.09%chance

718255

OptionVotes

YES

1022

978

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.42%chance

196966

OptionVotes

YES

13512

7412

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Oct 19, 12:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.15%chance

283724

OptionVotes

YES

2398

808

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Jun 28, 11:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

222348

OptionVotes

YES

2636

379

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.79%chance

232199

OptionVotes

YES

1419

706

Will China invade Taiwan before 2027

Mar 21, 8:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.76%chance

211725

OptionVotes

YES

288

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

29.8%chance

51492

OptionVotes

YES

1535

652

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Apr 5, 7:45 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

12640

OptionProbability

Administration of the RTS,S malaria vaccine to young children

Other

Chlorine vouchers for water treatment

Water quality interventions (Excl household chlorination)

Building footbridges in rural areas to connect isolated households to schools, health clinics, and markets

Ponseti casting for clubfoot

In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.

Mar 13, 4:09 AMMar 13, 4:08 AM

12.09%chance

19529

OptionVotes

YES

270

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.77%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

765

402

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

140

Isolated Markets News

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan before 2027

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

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