Isolated Markets News

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.46%chance

748762

OptionVotes

YES

1265

791

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.25%chance

237029

OptionVotes

YES

13564

7383

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Oct 19, 12:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.15%chance

283724

OptionVotes

YES

2398

808

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Jun 28, 11:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.46%chance

242671

OptionVotes

YES

3094

323

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.77%chance

232215

OptionVotes

YES

1418

706

Will China invade Taiwan before 2027

Mar 21, 8:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6%chance

261920

OptionVotes

YES

396

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

1852

540

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Apr 5, 7:45 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

12640

OptionProbability

Administration of the RTS,S malaria vaccine to young children

Other

Chlorine vouchers for water treatment

Water quality interventions (Excl household chlorination)

Building footbridges in rural areas to connect isolated households to schools, health clinics, and markets

Ponseti casting for clubfoot

Will China introduce penalties for married couples without children by 2030?

Mar 15, 2:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.39%chance

11303

OptionVotes

YES

447

151

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.77%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

765

402

Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?

Jun 23, 6:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.14%chance

16252

OptionVotes

YES

239

Isolated Markets News

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan before 2027

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Will China introduce penalties for married couples without children by 2030?

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?

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