Isolated Markets News

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

48.34%chance

455579

OptionVotes

YES

1034

967

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.02%chance

85517

OptionVotes

YES

15278

6555

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Oct 19, 12:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.15%chance

283724

OptionVotes

YES

2398

808

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

203095

OptionVotes

YES

2245

446

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Jun 28, 11:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

222348

OptionVotes

YES

2636

379

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.79%chance

232199

OptionVotes

YES

1419

706

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

39.28%chance

41167

OptionVotes

YES

1243

804

Will the U.S start a war by the end of November 2026

Feb 10, 6:14 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

26.18%chance

3870

OptionVotes

YES

1679

596

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Apr 5, 7:45 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

12640

OptionProbability

Administration of the RTS,S malaria vaccine to young children

Other

Chlorine vouchers for water treatment

Water quality interventions (Excl household chlorination)

Building footbridges in rural areas to connect isolated households to schools, health clinics, and markets

Ponseti casting for clubfoot

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.45%chance

6306

OptionVotes

YES

254

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.87%chance

4261

OptionVotes

YES

760

403

Isolated Markets News

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Prediction markets for Isolated Markets

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Will the U.S start a war by the end of November 2026

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Will the Mountain Hare, a.k.a. Snow Hare (Lepus timidus) become extinct in the current century?

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