Israeli attacks News

UN Condemns Israel's Blockade on Gaza Tents Amid Health System Collapse, Calls for 60-Day Truce

1 year ago

Israel and Syria Hold U.S.-Facilitated Talks on Security Deal Along 1974 Armistice Line as Lebanese Army Operates Amid UNIFIL Renewal and U.S. Envoy Proposal

1 year ago

Iran vs US (props)

Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM

528134216

OptionProbability

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

100

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.43%chance

5513817

OptionVotes

YES

1189

841

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

3725

268

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

3243

194

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Jun 30, 1:32 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

306077

OptionVotes

YES

3918

255

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Mar 27, 1:11 PMDec 31, 2:09 PM

2.45%chance

312370

OptionVotes

YES

630

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

Did Netanyahu knowingly receive money from the Qatari government?

Mar 19, 11:52 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

82.13%chance

71206

OptionVotes

YES

2144

466

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

What year will the Israel-Gaza conflict end?

Oct 20, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14546

OptionProbability

2027

2026

Never/ongoing indefinitely

2028

2030

2029

2031 or later

Null

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

12%chance

13352

OptionVotes

YES

271

Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”

Jun 26, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.29%chance

762

OptionVotes

YES

117

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Iran vs US (props)

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Did Netanyahu knowingly receive money from the Qatari government?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

What year will the Israel-Gaza conflict end?

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”

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