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Prediction markets for Jailbreak

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Jan 22, 12:38 AMDec 29, 12:59 PM

98.95%chance

2012797

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12890

469

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

Mar 26, 6:08 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

778755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will the latest flagship reMarkable tablet and software remain highly customizable through 2025?

Feb 5, 11:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.9%chance

14363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1183

937

What will be true of ChatGPT's porn policy in December?

Oct 25, 8:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14359

OptionProbability

Users will be permitted to make porn text

The porn-policy change will be cancelled, or not implemented

Users will be permitted to talk dirty with the voice mode

Users will be permitted to make porn images

Users will be permitted to make porn videos

86

50

19

15

5

Will "Will 'jailbreaks' in LLMs be solved in principle by the end of 2024" resolve YES AND turn out wrong in 2026?

Jun 11, 8:05 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

3342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

23

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Jailbreak the AI summary to say the secret phrase?

Jul 25, 10:58 PMDec 31, 11:56 PM

67.76%chance

587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

In 2030 can you get a chain of 3 neural nets that jailbreak eachother?

Jun 22, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.49%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

71

IS JOSE LUIS RICON JAILBREAKABLE?

Aug 12, 11:42 PM

10

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