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Prediction markets for Jailbreaking

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Jan 22, 12:38 AMDec 29, 12:59 PM

98.97%chance

1912795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13081

467

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

Mar 26, 6:08 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

778715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.46%chance

251203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

873

Will there be a jailbreak of GPT-5 within 1 week of release?

Aug 5, 7:28 PMAug 14, 9:00 PM

94.49%chance

18844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

414

24

Will "Will 'jailbreaks' in LLMs be solved in principle by the end of 2024" resolve YES AND turn out wrong in 2026?

Jun 11, 8:05 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

3342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

23

Will the latest flagship reMarkable tablet and software remain highly customizable through 2025?

Feb 5, 11:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.95%chance

12303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

950

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Jailbreak the AI summary to say the secret phrase?

Jul 25, 10:58 PMDec 31, 11:56 PM

67.76%chance

587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

In 2030 can you get a chain of 3 neural nets that jailbreak eachother?

Jun 22, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.49%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

71

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