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Prediction markets for Jan
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 6, 3:59 AM
99%chance
129427948
OptionVotes
161904
87627
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM
8.13%chance
127235268
OptionVotes
3153
961
Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM
1.09%chance
58154931
OptionVotes
117779
4179
Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
32.79%chance
10433498
OptionVotes
1594
1007
OptionVotes
9950
101
Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?
May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
19.46%chance
10214663
OptionVotes
1587
1134
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?
Feb 4, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.78%chance
358720
OptionVotes
1327
754
Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?
Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
79.08%chance
756743
OptionVotes
2027
1026
Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?
Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.63%chance
385953
OptionVotes
1853
554
Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?
Mar 17, 12:34 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
84.37%chance
91707
OptionVotes
2323
430
"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"
Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
17.17%chance
151215
OptionVotes
3494
2367
OptionProbability
57
22
8
6
6