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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Jan

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6.5%chance

127235217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3804

910

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

58154920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117790

4179

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

41.15%chance

101120616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59424

42630

Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?

Jul 27, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43%chance

15850721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

841

Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.79%chance

10433498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1594

1007

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3230357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

18.75%chance

10014511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1642

1121

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?

Feb 4, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.46%chance

326496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

914

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

77.23%chance

725806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1888

1065

Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?

Mar 17, 12:34 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

84.37%chance

91707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2323

430

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17.17%chance

151215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3494

2367

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