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Prediction markets for January

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48%chance

640543230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15391

9326

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 1, 2026?

Jul 14, 11:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

98.17%chance

93149409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

87988

3002

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

2650797

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

70

29

1

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

11337948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29769

3359

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.93%chance

14717706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10226

9709

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.26%chance

115341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13705

7296

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10382

9514

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

56.37%chance

41397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11367

8797

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