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Prediction markets for January

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.72%chance

708696396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22531

4727

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms

Sep 26, 3:00 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

98.13%chance

3772321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72516

1379

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

11746291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33053

3031

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.94%chance

2013543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13569

1337

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.02%chance

2413122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10393

1957

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

159435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10413

1804

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

158124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8398

2142

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8632

3470

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

61.66%chance

183552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11364

9035

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