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Prediction markets for January

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.09%chance

695662843

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18084

7003

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.98%chance

2668193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6211

4254

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

11744741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31503

3180

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.22%chance

16241810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31274

2428

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

67.62%chance

21640129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2464

1756

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

2112892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10163

2023

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.89%chance

307328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8082

3701

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

187062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7087

2553

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10072

2801

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.42%chance

171802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10297

9614

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