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Prediction markets for January Effect

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

659577278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16162

8561

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.06%chance

8892719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2563

720

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.7%chance

29334058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3948

3188

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.35%chance

6420186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

774

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.87%chance

7118862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1797

790

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.45%chance

617404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

850

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

266710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

784

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.78%chance

556603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

822

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

56.75%chance

375627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

924

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

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