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Prediction markets for January Effect

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71%chance

703682126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21853

4992

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

105109530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3227

670

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.18%chance

29434211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3974

3134

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.42%chance

7521770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

900

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17.19%chance

8121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

846

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.58%chance

647343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

943

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

32.03%chance

446996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

626

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

May 11, 2:28 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

5.84%chance

62425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10211

5094

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

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