JFK assassination News

Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

Jul 3, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

238108503

OptionProbability

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Other

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

Mafia

Cuban government

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people

JFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040

Jun 8, 2:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.73%chance

192965

OptionVotes

YES

1176

955

Who actually shot JFK?

Jun 22, 9:17 PMNov 22, 10:12 PM

101569

OptionProbability

David Morales

Felix Rodriguez (Max Gomez)

Raphael "Chi Chi" Quintero

Lee Harvey Oswald

Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)

Mar 8, 1:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

281392

OptionProbability

Vaccines are safe

The Holocaust was real and ~6M Jewish people were murdered in it

Climate change is real and caused by humans

JFK was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone.

The Apollo moon landings were genuine

The Earth is round

Trump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.

Nov 8, 2:49 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

41.32%chance

161305

OptionVotes

YES

119

When will Manifold sweepify any question about aliens or the JFK assassination.

Dec 8, 1:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7838

OptionProbability

It is illegal to create wagers about conspiracies, because that would spill secrets, so they can't and won't.

Before Jan 1st 2026

Before Jan 1st 2027

Before Dec 25th 2024

Before Jan 1st 2025

Before Feb 1st 2025

Before March 1st 2025

Before April 1st 2025

Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030?

Jul 3, 9:24 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

57.82%chance

20791

OptionVotes

YES

1102

879

Will further evidence emerge that the CIA was involved in the assassination of JFK?

May 3, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.63%chance

18584

OptionVotes

YES

224

Will further evidence emerge that there was a second shooter involved in the assassination of JFK?

May 3, 4:10 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

8.55%chance

12528

OptionVotes

YES

327

Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 10 years)

Jan 24, 6:31 PMJan 24, 6:31 PM

31.22%chance

10422

OptionVotes

YES

186

171

Will further evidence emerge that the Mafia was involved in the assassination of JFK or its cover up?

May 3, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

13.24%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

509

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

Jul 3, 11:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13172

OptionProbability

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans still believe that Oswald did not act alone.

There will not be enough new polling of this question before 2030.

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans now believe Oswald acted alone.

JFK assassination News

Prediction markets for JFK assassination

Prediction markets for JFK assassination

Prediction markets for JFK assassination

Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?

JFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040

Who actually shot JFK?

Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)

Trump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.

When will Manifold sweepify any question about aliens or the JFK assassination.

Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030?

Will further evidence emerge that the CIA was involved in the assassination of JFK?

Will further evidence emerge that there was a second shooter involved in the assassination of JFK?

Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 10 years)

Will further evidence emerge that the Mafia was involved in the assassination of JFK or its cover up?

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

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