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Prediction markets for Job Openings

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.92%chance

7333871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

815

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.47%chance

391109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2089

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

US unemployment above 5% in 2025?

Jun 9, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.58%chance

15339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Will the US be at full employment in December 2025?

May 19, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.02%chance

10256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

96

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Feb 9, 3:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.98%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

115

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.31%chance

6161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

68

Will public officials be barred from blocking people on Facebook in Supreme Court case O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier?

Nov 8, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.36%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

63

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