Job Openings News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

What will be the average price of a home in Arlington VA on March 1st 2027?

Feb 27, 3:55 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

32640

OptionProbability

$800,000 - $999,999

$600,000 - $799,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$200,000 - $399,999

$1,500,000 - $2,000,000

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

Jan 31, 4:11 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

102303

OptionProbability

Celtics Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Clippers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Magic Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Sixers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

When do I next become fully employed?

Aug 27, 6:46 PMJan 1, 7:25 PM

32123

OptionProbability

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q1 2026

Q4 2026

>=2027

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

YES

2360

1961

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Feb 9, 3:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.98%chance

9163

OptionVotes

YES

199

115

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Feb 12, 8:44 AMFeb 12, 8:37 AM

60.51%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will May 2026 U.S. job openings be at least 7.5 million?

Jun 7, 6:05 AMJun 30, 1:55 PM

51.36%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Job Openings News

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

What will be the average price of a home in Arlington VA on March 1st 2027?

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

When do I next become fully employed?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Will May 2026 U.S. job openings be at least 7.5 million?

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