Job Openings News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.31%chance

756761

OptionVotes

YES

1841

1310

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

Jan 31, 4:11 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

102303

OptionProbability

Celtics Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Clippers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Magic Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Sixers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

YES

2360

1961

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

20817

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

13380

OptionProbability

Kemi Badenoch

Keir Starmer

LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4]

May 3, 12:35 PMMay 10, 12:35 PM

54%chance

21339

OptionVotes

YES

135

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Feb 9, 3:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.98%chance

9163

OptionVotes

YES

199

115

How will "The AI Job Apocalypse Is A Is A Complete Fantasy" be viewed at the end of 2027?

May 7, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

Correct

Mixed

Incorrect

Job Openings News

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Who will resign first?

LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4]

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

How will "The AI Job Apocalypse Is A Is A Complete Fantasy" be viewed at the end of 2027?

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