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Prediction markets for Job Openings

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

Will I regret taking a job at openai as a coder after graduating?

Jan 10, 5:04 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

23.09%chance

594384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

548

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

Jan 31, 4:11 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

102303

OptionProbability

Celtics Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Clippers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Magic Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Sixers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

78

50

33

20

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.05%chance

401124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

2104

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

19800

OptionProbability

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

55

53

37

35

34

33

33

28

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

96

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Feb 9, 3:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.98%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

115

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.31%chance

6161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

68

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms?

May 4, 11:12 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

7146

OptionProbability

Yes on Stagflation (high inflation & recession)

No abnormalities in inflation & GDP

Recession but no inflation abnormality

Inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation and recession

High inflation and GDP growth

High GDP but no inflation abnormality

Deflation/low inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation & high GDP growth

25

20

19

13

6

5

5

4

3

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