Job Openings News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1305

Will I regret taking a job at openai as a coder after graduating?

Jan 10, 5:04 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

28.66%chance

594632

OptionVotes

YES

1578

634

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

Jan 31, 4:11 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

102303

OptionProbability

Celtics Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Clippers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Magic Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

Sixers Win Playoff Series against Doc Rivers

When do I next become fully employed?

Aug 27, 6:46 PMJan 1, 7:25 PM

32123

OptionProbability

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q1 2026

Q4 2026

>=2027

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

What will be the average price of a home in Arlington VA on March 1st 2027?

Feb 27, 3:55 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

22065

OptionProbability

$800,000 - $999,999

$600,000 - $799,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$200,000 - $399,999

$1,500,000 - $2,000,000

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.41%chance

421464

OptionVotes

YES

2377

1951

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

19800

OptionProbability

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

Feb 9, 3:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.98%chance

9163

OptionVotes

YES

199

115

Job Openings News

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Prediction markets for Job Openings

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will I regret taking a job at openai as a coder after graduating?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

NBA Vengeance: Doc Rivers vs Former Teams (Sixers, Celtics...)

When do I next become fully employed?

What will be the average price of a home in Arlington VA on March 1st 2027?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

Will the number of Junior Developer (SWE) job openings substantially decrease (at least 33%) between now and 01/01/2030?

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