JP News

It won't release during 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

It will support at least 199.5k context

Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

It will be trained on reasoning traces from o1/o3 type models

It will be a model router.

It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

It will release in April 2024 or before

It will release between May and October 2024

It will release in November 2024

It will release in December 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

It will support at least 499.5k context

It will support at least 999.5k context

Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

It will release before GPT 4.5

There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release

It will be ranked the highest model on the LMSys Chatbot Arena, and not overtaken by another model, 3 months after the release date.

YES

SoFi Technologies ($SOFI)

Citigroup ($C)

Other

Bank of America ($BAC)

Capital One ($COF)

JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)

YES

YES

YES

2025

2026-2027

2027-2029

2030 or later or never

YES

NO

YES

YES