Judge For Yourself News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Approval < 35%

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

trump gets hospitalized

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Vances have another kid

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

USA experiences a recession.

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump visits Africa

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

10% fewer government agencies

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump and Obama shake hands

War is declared against another nation

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Dow rises above 65,000

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump says a racial slur

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Joe Biden dies

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

New national park created

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Repeal obamacare

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

JD Vance elected President

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

Trump runs for a third term

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

55 or more Republican senate seats

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Record level unemployment

54 or more Republican senate seats

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Trump is assassinated

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

A national ban on gender-affirming care

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

"covfefe" posted again

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump and Melania divorce

Ann Selzer arrested

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Premieres in 2027

Malfoy has white blonde hair

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Peeves is a reoccurring character

It's woke

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

mandrake root on screen

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

Hermione is white

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

A house elf is shown on screen

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Dobby makes an appearance

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Premieres in 2026

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Features an explicitly transgender character

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

Hermione is black

Hermione is Indian

Zendaya is cast in the show

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Voldemort is a woman

There will be seven CGI dwarves

set in 2025

set in the 2020s

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Keir Starmer is in it

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

We get AGI before it premieres

HPMOR is referenced

Hagrid is black

Gandalf is black

Adolf Hitler is mentioned

Fred and George have the same actor

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

Passed by Congress

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Some checks bounce

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]

The death of Jimmy Carter

The Paris Olympics closing ceremony

The launch of GPT-5

The release of the iPhone 16

Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections

Bitcoin reaches $100k

Elon Musk has another child

GTA 6 release

The death of Joe Biden

A Category 5 hurricane hits the US

The war in Ukraine comes to an end

Peak Oil Demand

The Enhanced Games opening ceremony

Man’s return to the moon

EV sales in the USA overtake ICE

Will Smith attends the Oscars

Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Bitcoin falls to $30k

AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold

A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Donald Trump goes to jail

Prince William and Kate divorce

YES

GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

Trump visits greenland

GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

Greenland population falls below 40000

Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

Greenland has a military

20+ story building built

Greenland significantly changes its flag

Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

USD is the used currency

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Other

Judge James Ho

Andrew Oldham

Amul Thapar

Patrick J. Bumatay

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

Stephen Curry- Warriors

Shohei Ohtani- Dodgers

Mike Trout- Angels

Jimmy Butler- Warriors

Patrick Mahomes- Chiefs

Tadej Pogačar

LeBron James- Lakers

Aaron Judge- Yankees

Nikola Jokic- Nuggets

Josh Allen- Bills

Luka Doncic- Lakers