Judge For Yourself News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

YES

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

A second major version of the model has been released

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

Video will include sound

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

It will be free to use

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Sora will be part of GPT model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A third major version of the model has been released

It has been renamed

Full description of model architecture will be public

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

Premieres in 2027

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Peeves is a reoccurring character

It's woke

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

mandrake root on screen

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hermione is white

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

A house elf is shown on screen

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Dobby makes an appearance

At least one of the actors is transgender

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Voldemort is a woman

Premieres in 2026

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Features an explicitly transgender character

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Zendaya is cast in the show

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

Hermione is black

Hermione is Indian

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Keir Starmer is in it

There will be seven CGI dwarves

set in 2025

set in the 2020s

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Gandalf is black

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

We get AGI before it premieres

Hagrid is black

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

A physical check (at least optionally)

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

All for same amount

≥$200

A tax credit (exclusively)

Any American receives it by end 2026

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

Passed by Congress

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Some checks bounce

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

YES

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Stephen Curry- Warriors

Jimmy Butler- Warriors

LeBron James- Lakers

Shohei Ohtani- Dodgers

Mike Trout- Angels

Patrick Mahomes- Chiefs

Tadej Pogačar

Aaron Judge- Yankees

Nikola Jokic- Nuggets

Josh Allen- Bills

Luka Doncic- Lakers

Other

Aaron Judge

Cal Raleigh