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Prediction markets for July

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3977464

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

59

24

9

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

28.46%chance

10833113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

975

Starmer out before July?

Feb 14, 7:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

40.52%chance

6324680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12116

8254

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.61%chance

15022796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3005

1008

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

34.84%chance

363486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

262546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

242496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

570

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.07%chance

161466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

752

Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?

Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

48.13%chance

111020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

972

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

944

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