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Prediction markets for July

Starmer out before July?

Feb 14, 7:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.21%chance

241162440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12991

7698

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

58

24

9

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

25.17%chance

10833263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

920

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.53%chance

15122801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

1006

Anthropic 60B revenue annual run rate on July 6, 2026?

Apr 6, 11:22 PMJul 6, 11:59 PM

44.75%chance

3911281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

900

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

34.84%chance

363486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

242496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

570

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?

Mar 1, 9:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57.74%chance

181318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

856

Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?

Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

52.08%chance

121100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

967

Will there be 500 or more Notifiable Data Breaches reported in Australia between 1 July and 31 December 2025?

Jan 2, 2:38 AMMay 30, 1:59 PM

59.18%chance

5782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

4288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

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