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Prediction markets for July

Fable reenabled for Europeans before July 1?

Jun 13, 9:49 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

16.28%chance

526154296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22681

4409

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4281215

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

81

77

70

65

51

20

5

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

25.17%chance

10833263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

920

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.53%chance

15122801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

1006

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]

May 28, 10:49 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

3210101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

678

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

Jun 17, 1:36 AMJul 16, 6:59 AM

44.22%chance

465189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

890

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

34.84%chance

363486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

5.44%chance

183216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

240

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

242496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

570

Federal Reserve FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]

Jun 23, 3:43 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

62346

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps increase

25 bps decrease

50 bps increase

70

20

5

5

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Jun 20, 10:59 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

53.14%chance

12340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

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