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Prediction markets for July

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

49.59%chance

11433930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1332

714

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5131809

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

SpaceXAi

Microsoft

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

62

14

14

13

12

10

6

6

6

5

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.71%chance

15222806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

1011

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?

Nov 28, 10:01 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

28.86%chance

849122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

923

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

53.41%chance

464961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

665

Will Julie Anne Genter win Wellington Bays in 2026?

Oct 26, 4:23 AMNov 24, 11:59 PM

10%chance

134581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2142

67

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

58.93%chance

333611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

571

Bitcoin above 100k before July 2027?

Aug 20, 12:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

52.58%chance

162640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

950

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Oct 2, 1:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.2%chance

8691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

852

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

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