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Prediction markets for July

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

24.18%chance

11033443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

903

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

4831407

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

Microsoft

SpaceXAi

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

63

15

14

14

13

10

6

6

6

5

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.71%chance

15222806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

1011

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?

Nov 28, 10:01 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

19.17%chance

788642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

876

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

34.84%chance

363486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

Biggest AI romance app more users than biggest human romance app on July 1, 2028?

Jun 27, 9:02 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

17%chance

172785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2225

456

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

56.88%chance

252528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

602

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?

Jun 30, 5:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

71.32%chance

111132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1577

634

Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)

Jul 28, 2:02 PMJul 26, 11:59 PM

67.62%chance

6547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

914

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.91%chance

27415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

985

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