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Prediction markets for July

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3473575

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

72

70

61

55

25

20

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

38.76%chance

10631062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

952

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

29%chance

15022694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3107

965

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

42.72%chance

353286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

867

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

262546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?

Dec 16, 3:59 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

70%chance

241683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1662

420

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?

Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

51.84%chance

9945

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

964

Will I be on the all-time profits leaderboard by 1st July 2026?

Jul 27, 4:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Google Vids discontinued before July 1, 2027?

Jun 30, 8:15 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.67%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

917

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

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