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Prediction markets for July Declaration

Will the UN declare a famine in Gaza by 2030?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.33%chance

228942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

151

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

409

Will The UK recognize Palestine by EOY2025?

Apr 29, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.97%chance

201022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

35

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.51%chance

26410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

980

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

81

19

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265

OptionProbability

Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

Other

73

27

Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?

Jul 3, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.25%chance

359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Who will win the 2025 T20I Series between New Zealand and Australia?

Jul 22, 11:23 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

220

OptionProbability

Australia

Other

New Zealand

39

31

30

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 22nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

214

OptionProbability

Susan Rubio (incumbent)

Other

54

46

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

213

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

53

47

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 36th State Senate district

Jul 7, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Tony Strickland (incumbent)

Other

55

45

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