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Prediction markets for Just

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5415827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13239

9320

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

519229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4603

217

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.42%chance

505177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

645

Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025?

Dec 31, 1:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.02%chance

254111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3897

793

Will "ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 2:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.17%chance

101245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

923

Will ASI just discover God and not have a prey drive?

Dec 23, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.9%chance

14943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

812

Will "You can just wear a suit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 11:24 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.64%chance

5859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1790

910

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.91%chance

22606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

947

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.77%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

898

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

Jun 10, 2:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.09%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

768

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 2:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.59%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

995

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