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Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.15%chance

17160323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10776

7116

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4%chance

529997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.09%chance

515787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1772

308

Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?

Nov 18, 3:11 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

47.49%chance

374532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1549

1439

Should I just chill and NOT make a dog run (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

Nov 9, 11:45 PMJul 1, 10:36 PM

84.07%chance

91972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2297

435

Will "ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 2:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

27.03%chance

121496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

493

Will "You can just wear a suit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 11:24 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.64%chance

5859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1790

910

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.77%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

898

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

Jun 10, 2:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.09%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

768

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.5%chance

16286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

920

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 2:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.59%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

995

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