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Prediction markets for Just

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38%chance

18689109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11958

4561

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.49%chance

5310344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4613

217

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.56%chance

526037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

240

Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?

Nov 18, 3:11 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

47.49%chance

374532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1549

1439

Will ASI just discover God and not have a prey drive?

Dec 23, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.9%chance

14943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

812

Will "You can just wear a suit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 11:24 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.64%chance

5859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1790

910

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.45%chance

23656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

822

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

18640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

876

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

Jun 10, 2:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.18%chance

6365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will "How I stopped being sure LLMs are just making..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 2:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 19, 11:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will "Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 3:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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