OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Neymar plays in a match
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Team loses after leading 2-0
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Panenka penalty to be scored
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)
Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight
Trump still alive at end of final match
Trump attends match
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Player scores 8+ goals
Players cleat falls off their foot
Emmanuel Macron attends match
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Any host nation in quarter final
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Champion is a first place group stage winner
No red cards issued in the Final match
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
2+ European countries reach top 4
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)
Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)
France becomes finalist
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Mbappe doing the dictator point
Own goal is scored (Rof16)
Over 14.5 own goals scored
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Player with 9 or more assists
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)
20+ penalty goals
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Elon Musk attends match
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
An even number of games go to a shootout
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Messi gets a yellow card
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Messi scores on every game he plays
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)
3 continents reach semifinals
Spain goes further than France
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Goal scored within 1st minute
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
VAR overturns second yellow card
US goes further than Mexico
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Winning team has a foreign manager
2 UEFA teams in final
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
Betting scandal reported
Team captain gets red card
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Haaland scores on every game he plays
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
England loses on penalties
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Flares in stands during match in USA
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
25+ people arrested at stadium
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
Three straight games going to penalties
A host country reaches the semi-finals
30+ penalty goals
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Fans invade field during match
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
5+ hat tricks
Freddy attends the final match
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Football is coming home?
King Charles attends match
Salt Bae attending a match
Ronaldo does not start
15+ cards in any match
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Major security incident
Another match with 3+ red cards
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Asian player misses penalty kick
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Bonnie Blue attending a match
German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
Goal scored from own half
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Norway becomes finalist
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Any match is canceled or postponed
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Bald person gets the red card
Player gets spat on during match
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Asian player gets the red card
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)
Player bit during match
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Trump attends 3 or more games
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Trump dancing at match
Belgium becomes finalist
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
10+ goals in any match
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Match is forfeited
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Player shits in the pants during match
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Team gets removed or disqualified
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Players / members of team attempt to defect
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Asia team reaches semi final
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
All 3 host countries win the opener
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Canada goes further than US
Ronaldo scores before Messi
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
The Netherlands reaches half-final
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV
Red card in CAN v MAR?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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100
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100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
97
96
96
92
86
86
84
84
84
83
82
82
81
79
78
77
77
76
76
75
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74
73
73
72
71
71
70
69
68
65
65
64
63
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
58
58
57
55
55
54
54
54
50
50
49
49
48
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46
45
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43
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43
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39
39
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36
35
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34
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
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26
26
25
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
21
20
20
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20
20
19
19
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18
18
18
18
17
16
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14
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
On Earth
Before 2045
Before we have an universal flu vaccine
Before me
Before WW3
In the US
Before we get ASI
After his presidency
Before we get AGI
Natural causes
In the Eastern time zone
When BTC is below $100.000
In a hospital
Closer to Venus than to Mars
When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0
in bed
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
When BTC is above $80.000
At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)
In his sleep
While he is on a GLP-1
After he announced he is sick
In Florida
Closer to Venus than to the Sun
Before 2030
Mar-a-Lago
Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io
In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll
After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months
Within 6 months of leaving office
Closer to Mars than to the Sun
While in office
By assassination
In New Jersey
After 2035
While mercury is in retrograde
After 2040
In front of a camera
The White House
On a Sunday
On a Monday
On a Tuesday
On a Wednesday
On a Thursday
On a Friday
On a Saturday
Outside (not in a vehicle or building)
While doing a speech
2030
With a bullet inside his body
2029
During WW3
2031
2032
2033
On an airplane
2035
2037
2034
2035
On TV
2038
Killed because a deal went sideways
2028
2027
2039
After J D Vance dies
2026
In Qatar
While having sex
On a gold toilet
In Russia
He will become effectively immortal
Food poisoning
Before ending World Cup 2026
In Greenland
Q2, 2026
While doing a funny dance
2025
99
97
95
95
94
92
90
80
80
80
79
75
74
68
67
66
62
61
54
51
48
43
42
37
28
27
27
27
26
24
23
20
19
19
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
12
11
11
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Other
PianoVision
Quantum Odyssey
The Farmer Was Replaced
Treasure Cove
Math blasters
Brain Age
Dance Dance Revolution
Turing Complete
Rocksmith
NandGame
Scale of the universe
SHENZHEN I/O
Zoombinis
https://www.geogridgame.com/
Mahjong
runescape
Poly Bridge
Victoria II
Universal Paperclips [Invalid, already played]
Antbuster [Invalid, already played]
Spore [Invalid, already played]
Geoguessr [Invalid, already played]
A Slower Speed of Light [Invalid, already played]
Scrandle
Epistory
The Forgotten City
ANTE
Europa Universalis IV
Silicon Zeroes
Factorio [Invalid, already played]
Magic the Gathering [Invalid, already played]
Zendo
Jahooma's logic box
Civilization VI [Invalid, already played]
Murder, she bet
Terraforming Mars [Invalid, already played]
Captain of Industry
Hackmud
Cool Math Games [Invalid, not a game]
Duo Lingo [Invalid, not a game]
Democracy 3
Plague Inc: Evolved
Age of Empires II [Invalid, already played]
Airport CEO
Kerbal Space Program [Invalid, already played]
Chess [Invalid, already played]
Cellcraft [Invalid, already played]
Imperivm: Great Battles of Rome
Pharaoh
Untrusted
Cinco Paus
We Become What We Behold
Sine Rider
http://robozzle.com/
https://logicbox.jahooma.com/
https://lab.quantumflytrap.com/
The Battle of Polytopia
https://microcorruption.com/
Frog Fractions
Poker [Invalid, already played]
Monopoly [Invalid, already played]
15
10
9
6
6
6
6
6
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
safely returns to Earth
Will attempt to say something momentous
Had been into space as of 2023
Right handed
Is a pilot (but not necessarily for the mission)
Have child/ren
military or ex military background
Isn't white
Chinese Citizen
Is the mission commander
Have a PhD
Male
Will step out with their right foot first
Have 2+ bachelors degrees
video recording is available of them falling over on the lunar surface (within 1 year of moonwalk)
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered not to have been momentous 12 months after landing
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered so 12 months after landing
Will be recorded (e.g. interview, podcast transcript) dissing moon landing hoaxers, either before or within 12 months of moonwalk
Will have a nickname that doesn't directly derive from their real name (eg Buzz)
Is 68 inches or taller
is 50 years old or older (at time of moonwalk)
Born in a state that majority voted for Trump in 2024 election
Films a tiktok (or similar short format film) on the lunar surface featuring at least some dancing (inside the lander counts) (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
American citizen
First moon-words will be a joke (e.g. "oh, did I leave the oven on?" or "hey i can see my house from up here!" or even "oh wow there's an alien life form waving at me!")
No tertiary qualification (honorary degrees don't count)
Will not be a single person; two or more people will take the first step (almost) simultaneously
Christian
Expressed doubt on whether the Apollo landings happened (digging up an embarrassing tweet from when they were 13 counts)
bald
has some kind of neural implant
is 30 years old or younger (at time of moonwalk)
Will be recorded attempting a backflip on the lunar surface (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
Ginger
Is transgender
94
88
82
79
76
72
72
67
66
66
57
50
50
46
45
40
39
39
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
27
25
25
20
16
15
12
10
9
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2651
766
OptionProbability
Metalhead
Joan is Awful
Other
Hated in the Nation
USS Callister
Fifteen Million Merits
San Junipero
The Waldo Moment
White Christmas
Hang the DJ
Nosedive
The Entire History of You
Shut up and Dance
The National Anthem
Archange
16
13
13
12
10
7
6
6
4
3
3
3
1
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1310
920
OptionProbability
Is marketed as Episode X
Red lightsaber on screen
Blue lightsaber on screen
Green lightsaber on screen
Will be announced before 2028
Trailer out before 2028 (teaser counts)
The "Millennium Falcon" is on screen or mentioned
"Darth Sidious" or "Palpatine" is mentioned
Tie fighters on screen
"Darth Vader" is mentioned
A character is a Skywalker (by blood, name does not matter)
A dead character has spoken lines
A dead person appears as something like a ~spirit
New droid companion
Oscar Isaac returns in his previous role
Strong, quasi-masculine-presenting female lead character
Scantily clad hypersexualized female characters
Sole director credit to Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Digital version of dead actor plays a role
Yellow lightsaber on screen
Scores ≥7.5 on IMDB exactly one month after release
There will be a new lightsaber based weapon form we haven’t seen before (like Kylo’s light saber hilt).
John Boyega returns in his previous role
Adam Driver returns in his previous role
Taxes are mentioned
Droid dances
Using the force to choke someone
Death Star mentioned
Flashback to a period clearly overlapping with movies I-IX
Any actor from the original trilogy plays the same role
Is defined as part of a trilogy, before its premier date
Blue milk on screen
Cantina band song remix
Purple lightsaber on screen
Main character is not human
Will NOT be announced before 2030
Somehow, Palpatine returned
The word "rationalussy" is spoken
85
83
83
79
78
74
72
65
56
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
46
44
44
44
42
42
41
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
27
26
20
14
1
OptionProbability
SCOTUS rules against DTJ on tariffs
New dance sweeps nation
Alberta separation referendum fails in landslide
SCOTUS rules against DJT on 14th amend
Trump suggests just printing money
PM Carney gets majority gov't of 3 or more
Trump sincerely proposes himself on Rushmore
Nobel prize goes to US-led team — but not Trump
Netanyahu loses election but gets pardon
Full-length AI movie goes viral
Trump proposes 'Trump amendment'
Barron Trump does podcast
Maduro seeks exile in Russia
Deportation camp set up in Africa
Justice Thomas retires before midterms
Sir Keir Starmer resigns
Pro-Trump coup in Greenland
Hegseth replaced by Driscoll
Erika Kirk put in cabinet
JD and Usha split up
Bessent made chair of Fed
USMCA treaty torn up
Fuentes speaks at CPAC
Trump boycotts Biden's state funeral
66
66
59
50
50
50
41
34
34
31
28
28
27
24
20
17
15
15
10
9
8
8
8
4
OptionProbability
A book in the main ASOIAF series (ie a sequel to “A Dance with Dragons”, eg “The Winds of Winter”)
A “Dunk and Egg” story or stories
A sequel to “Fire & Blood”
A different in-universe non-fiction book/story
Martin will not release another book/story in the ASOIAF universe in his lifetime
A different fiction book/story
51
21
8
7
7
6
OptionProbability
Executes a synchronized dance routine.
Completes an agility obstacle course within a set time.
Solves a Rubik's Cube in under 30 seconds.
Shoots and scores from the free-throw line.
Drives a car.
Hits a dartboard bullseye.
Performs CPR on a mannequin/human.
Prepares a gourmet dish.
Replicates a complex origami figure.
Kill a human
Plays a specific song on an instrument accurately after one listening.
Assembles a furniture that hadn't seen, by reading the manual.
Executes an Olympic-standard perfect dive.
87
73
70
68
66
61
55
54
50
50
46
46
34
OptionProbability
Do you want to answer No to this question?
Can I compose music for one of your future projects?
Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?
Example: Is there a god?
Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms?
59
50
0
0
0
