OptionVotes
YES
NO
11108
10626
OptionProbability
Gunplay
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A hamburger appears on screen
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Pirates
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
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5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
16793
9923
OptionVotes
NO
YES
11985
9054
OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
Significant Rogue AI Incident
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Mass Deportations
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Coup attempt in the United States
Trump is impeached
AGI achieved
US punitive expedition in Mexico
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
Drone strike in Mexico by US
Joe Exotic is released from prison
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
100k humanoid robots manufactured
A human walks on the Moon
China invades Taiwan
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Nuclear weapon detonation
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
Supreme Court packing
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
US military intervention on Canadian territory
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Eagles three-peat
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Donald Trump reelected President
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
80
80
66
65
64
40
37
35
30
28
26
25
21
16
15
13
12
12
11
10
9
5
5
2
2
2
2
0
OptionProbability
I attend a Manifest
MSTR breaks $1069
Hollow Knight: Silksong releases
Trump dies
bitcoin reaches $100K usd
Bitcoin Reaches $150K USD
I live to 50 years old
First female USA president
Iceland OR Norway OR Japan ban whaling
Manifold reaches 10,000 engaged users
Azerbaijan invades Armenia
Manifold Outlives me
Team Fortress 3 releases
Bitcoin reaches $200K usd
Quantum computers consumer available
Human walks on mars
You get married
I visit Japan
Ukraine joins NATO
China and Taiwan invasion/conflict happens
Sesame Street ends
New Zealand becomes a republic
I have a child (biological or adopted)
I release a second Steam game after Heartseeker
Pokemon releases 2000 or more creatures
The first dog walks off planet (mars, moon, etc)
Wide consumer adoption of Neuralink or other brain implants
Trump serves a day in jail
@strutheo wins Masters League
Immortality (a way to completely halt aging) is invented
Someone has died on the moon
A portion of what is now China (according to US) becomes an independent state
Nuclear fusion commercially producing energy at scale
LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor
Any of the United States, United Kingdom, France, or Germany becomes a hybrid regime according to the Economist Democracy Index
pickleball in the olympics
i get a neuralink or other brain chip
Iceland Norway and Japan all ban whaling
Venezuela invades Guyana
Liechtenstein no longer an independant country
I spend 1 night in jail / prison / detainment
San Marino no longer an independant country
i walk on the moon
I see the first baby born off planet
All four of the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany become hybrid regimes according to the Economist Democracy Index
100
100
100
97
97
96
91
89
86
77
77
76
76
75
75
73
72
69
69
66
66
66
65
59
57
57
50
48
48
47
45
44
43
39
35
32
29
23
22
17
16
13
10
10
5
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
The US bombs Iran
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
Major cyberattack on Western frontier AI lab
Major Earthquake in/near Japan > 7 Richter
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
Russia cedes territory to China
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
India detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
92
86
84
83
81
78
75
75
70
70
70
66
66
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28
28
28
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26
26
25
25
25
24
23
16
15
13
12
7
5
OptionProbability
Other
Slay the Spire 2
Palworld
Resident Evil Requiem
Star Wars Zero Company
Big Walk
Crimson Desert
Grand Theft Auto VI
Fable
48
14
10
8
8
7
2
2
1
OptionProbability
death stranding 2 releases
bitcoin reaches 80k
end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)
Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access
Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )
Silksong
mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube
Alec Baldwin case ends
Trump running mate announced
2024 election is called by AP
The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates
Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Solar panels removed from the White House (again).
tortured poet's department releases
the end of manifest 2024
the start of manifest 2024
julian Assange extradited to usa
spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases
gta 6 releases
The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced
Joe Biden passes away or is murdered
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)
Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something
binance cease operating
Windows 12 released
trump found guilty of a crime
the ukraine russia war ends
human walks on the moon again
The last case of Guinea worm in humans
azerbaijian invades armenia
first female president
Ukraine joins NATO
destiny goes on joe rogan
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
92
90
90
86
76
57
54
50
50
50
50
41
40
37
34
23
22
20
20
14
13
12
11
8
5
4
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1352
876
OptionProbability
A MOU is signed to begin negotiations
Trump allows Iran to keep its Uranium
The US announces it is walking away from a deal
The war restarts
Trump allows Iran to charge fees on ships in the Strait
Iran announces it is walking away from a deal
The Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened without fees
A final peace deal is signed
Israel agrees to stop fighting in Lebanon
Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium
100
71
66
50
49
46
37
34
34
24
OptionProbability
Other
Healthy diet
gratitude
Walking
Sleep
Spend time outdoors
Stay hydrated
Positive mindset
47
18
12
6
6
6
3
3
