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Prediction markets for K2

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.36%chance

4639747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29410

3400

Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?

Sep 12, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

8439696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9646

667

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Sep 13, 12:30 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8.69%chance

5010158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2496

727

Will further research confirm the presence of DMS or DMDS on planet K2-18b by the end of 2025?

Apr 17, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.3%chance

207781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

236

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

Sep 15, 1:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.27%chance

314069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

935

Did humanity discover life on K2-18b?

Apr 18, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.81%chance

213711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3033

330

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Sep 17, 6:38 AMSep 22, 4:59 AM

16.18%chance

242956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

907

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

221750

OptionProbability

Other

Enceladus

Mars

Europa

Titan

Venus

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

25

22

20

15

10

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Feb 27, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

101131

OptionProbability

Claude 4

GPT 5

Kimi-K2

Deepseek R2

Grok 4

DeepSeek R1

Llama 4

Grok 3

Gemini 2 Flash Thinking

GPT 4.5

100

59

50

40

34

25

24

9

2

1

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

Apr 17, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.45%chance

151041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

26

Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

Jul 17, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

9731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

Will India control either mountain K2 or Nanga Parbat before Jan 1 2027

May 10, 3:08 PMJan 1, 4:01 PM

5.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

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