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Prediction markets for Kaggle Models

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.58%chance

8153268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2428

32

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.12%chance

6914351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1932

37

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.13%chance

407439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

76

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

387022

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

33

20

13

7

6

5

4

4

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

341966

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2029

2030-2049

2023-2024

47

31

20

2

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

90.92%chance

241075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

32

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3500

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

25

17

10

10

10

10

10

10

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