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Prediction markets for Kaggle Models

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.98%chance

7746722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

53

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.46%chance

6211825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1898

85

Which AI model will win the Kaggle Game Arena Chess tournament?

Aug 5, 6:37 PMAug 6, 6:35 PM

187680

OptionProbability

Grok 4

Gemini 2.5 Pro

o3

o4-mini

DeepSeek-R1

Claude Opus 4

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Kimi K2

Other

57

21

15

3

1

1

1

1

1

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

376881

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

34

33

13

7

6

5

4

4

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.24%chance

346305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1627

88

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

311871

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2027-2029

2025-2026

2023-2024

39

38

20

3

Which AI model will win Kaggle‘s chess tournament?

Aug 4, 5:30 PMAug 11, 5:29 PM

251596

OptionProbability

Grok 4 (xAI)

Gemini 2.5 Pro (Google)

o3 (OpenAI)

o4-mini (OpenAI)

Gemini 2.5 Flash (Google)

Claude 4 Opus (Anthropic)

DeepSeek R1

Kimi k2 (Moonshot AI)

66

49

34

6

0

0

0

0

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.97%chance

16457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

67

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2100

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