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KARMA News

    Prediction markets for KARMA

    What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

    Sep 10, 10:03 PMDec 10, 10:57 PM
    600145280

    OptionProbability

    Resided in the same state as the incident

    The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

    The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

    Did it on purpose

    The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

    The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

    Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

    Born in the United States

    Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

    Native English speaker (L1)

    Is a registered voter

    has at least one sibling

    at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

    “Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

    n/a

    US citizen

    White

    used a bolt action rifle

    Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

    wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

    Male

    Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

    20-27 years old

    had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

    JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Skinny

    Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

    He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

    Lives (or has lived) in Utah

    ectomorph body type

    Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

    Will plead guilty

    at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Acted alone (no accomplices)

    Accident please N/A

    has purchased furry-related media or items

    Gamer

    Is named Tyler Robinson

    Motivated primarily by political ideology

    Hunter

    iphone user

    has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

    disliked Charlie Kirk

    Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

    Unemployed

    Is left wing

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

    has a furaffinity account

    Owns a car

    Had bullets with engraved messages on them

    Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

    Strongly opposes zionism

    legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

    actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

    Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

    Is sentenced to death

    Will kill again (including suicide)

    Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

    Not a virgin

    Owns physical furry paraphernalia

    extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

    Furry

    Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

    There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

    N/A (oops)

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

    is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

    Dies in prison

    has used the word yiff in written communication

    Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

    Has ADHD

    Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

    had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

    6 ft tall

    Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

    has vore kink

    Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

    Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

    Owned the firearm used

    Went to furry events

    cross-dresser

    Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

    Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

    Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

    Accelerationist (any subtype)

    Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Fan fiction author

    White cis-hetero Christian man

    Will be convicted by EOY 2026

    Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

    student at any university

    was prescribed psychiatric medication

    Owns a fursuit

    Participates in this market

    Transgender

    Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

    psychedelics user

    Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

    Radical Centrist/JREG fan

    at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

    Has a Bluesky account

    Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

    Current or previous student at University of Utah

    There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

    Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

    Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

    Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

    made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

    Was on an FBI watchlist

    Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

    has significant student load debt

    Contact with CVLT/764/similar

    Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

    Is right wing

    A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

    J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

    Had diagnosed mental illness

    Femboy

    White Nationalist

    Left-handed

    Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

    Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

    History of domestic violence

    History of illegal drug addiction

    Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

    Ex law enforcement

    Will be convicted by EOY 2025

    Had felony conviction previously

    Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

    Incel

    groyper

    Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

    Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

    is Mossad

    Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

    Escapes carceral detention

    Was a student at UVU

    Involved in Effective Altruism

    Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

    Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

    Enjoys diplomatic immunity

    The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

    Current or former Roman Catholic

    Female Ninja Type Sniper

    Has a parent who drives for Uber

    Parent

    Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

    decel

    Not arrested before EOY 2025

    Fled the country after the shooting

    Will get killed by law enforcement

    Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

    Indian national

    The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

    Used a handgun

    Ex-military

    Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

    Has a PhD

    Has a Manifold account

    Muslim

    Veteran

    History of alcoholism

    Will share their first name with a famous video game character

    Teenager

    Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

    50 years or older

    Has a master's degree

    Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

    Is or was a computer science student

    Married

    Manifold assists with his capture

    Personally knew Charlie Kirk

    The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

    Iranian national

    Registered Democrat

    is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

    All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

    Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

    used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

    The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

    100

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    1

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    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

    Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    13.56%chance
    543879

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2874

    387

    Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

    Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    11.06%chance
    93855

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2835

    353

    How much LessWrong karma will I have in January 2028?

    Jan 20, 2:39 PMJan 20, 4:59 PM
    83577

    OptionProbability

    Above 0

    Above 10

    Above 25

    Above 50

    Above 100

    Above 250

    Above 500

    Above 1,000

    Above 2,500

    Above 5,000

    Above 10,000

    99

    98

    96

    94

    92

    85

    67

    38

    26

    21

    9

    Which Champions will be featured in the next Arcane show?

    Jan 26, 4:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    112808

    OptionProbability

    Swain

    LeBlanc

    Mel

    Darius

    Draven

    Vladimir

    Rell

    Katarina

    Kled

    Elise

    Talon

    Samira

    Riven

    Zaahen

    Locke

    Viktor

    Yasuo

    Taliyah

    Nilah

    Vayne

    Graves

    Syndra

    Jinx

    Sylas

    Yunara

    Renekton

    Kindred

    K'Sante

    Singed

    Trundle

    Shyvana

    Zeri

    Ambessa

    Vex

    Lissandra

    Morgana

    Sion

    Sivir

    Tristana

    Corki

    Nidalee

    Poppy

    Shen

    Malzahar

    Urgot

    Sona

    Irelia

    Maokai

    Jarvan IV

    Nocturne

    Rumble

    Nautilus

    Fiora

    Milio

    Twisted Fate

    Warwick

    Cho'Gath

    Blitzcrank

    Mordekaiser

    Ezreal

    Garen

    Akali

    Lux

    Varus

    Vi

    Ekko

    Jhin

    Neeko

    Sett

    Yone

    Thresh

    Azir

    Illaoi

    Ivern

    Senna

    Bel'Veth

    Zac

    Yorick

    Pantheon

    Galio

    Cassiopeia

    Leona

    Skarner

    Jayce

    Diana

    Zed

    Nami

    Lucian

    Qiyana

    Aphelios

    Hwei

    Smolder

    Aurora

    Udyr

    Zyra

    Rengar

    Kha'Zix

    Vel'Koz

    Bard

    Tahm Kench

    Rakan

    Xayah

    Kayn

    Zoe

    Pyke

    Yuumi

    Lillia

    Viego

    Naafiri

    Briar

    Gwen

    Gnar

    Camille

    Soraka

    Teemo

    Zilean

    Tryndamere

    Twitch

    Kassadin

    Taric

    Dr. Mundo

    Shaco

    Gragas

    Kog'Maw

    Karma

    Lee Sin

    Orianna

    Volibear

    Sejuani

    Ziggs

    Lulu

    Quinn

    Braum

    Kalista

    Rek'Sai

    Ornn

    Kai'Sa

    Akshan

    Renata Glasc

    Aatrox

    Olaf

    Caitlyn

    Veigar

    Ahri

    Aurelion Sol

    Annie

    Ashe

    Fiddlesticks

    Jax

    Kayle

    Master Yi

    Nunu & Willump

    Evelynn

    Karthus

    Anivia

    Rammus

    Gangplank

    Janna

    Nasus

    Kennen

    Xin Zhao

    Miss Fortune

    Wukong

    Fizz

    Hecarim

    Brand

    Seraphine

    Alistar

    Ryze

    Amumu

    Malphite

    Heimerdinger

    Xerath

    90

    90

    90

    86

    86

    80

    80

    69

    69

    59

    55

    55

    50

    50

    50

    45

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    37

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    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    By when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line?

    Aug 26, 12:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4516

    OptionProbability

    2030-12-31

    2029-12-31

    2028-12-31

    2027-12-31

    69

    50

    34

    24

    When will the next human die in space (above the Karman line)?

    Jul 17, 7:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
    11301

    OptionProbability

    2030s

    2020s

    2040s

    2050s

    2060s

    2070s

    2080s

    2090s

    2100+ or never

    29

    20

    13

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    Will Meta's Threads have a karma system similar to reddit by 2030?

    Jul 6, 6:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    71.82%chance
    6181

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    150

    47

    Will a >100 karma LW post claim "How to Catch a Liar" suffers from similar problems to CCS?

    Jan 15, 6:00 PMJan 23, 7:59 AM
    31%chance
    5144

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    155

    111